Thursday February 21, 9:47 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno,
AP Business Writer.
Wall Street Moves Higher on Strong Tech Gains, Ahead of Economic Data
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its rally in early trading Thursday as traders placed bets that further economic data will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its March meeting.
Investors, who shrugged off inflation concerns to send stocks broadly higher Wednesday, are awaiting two key reports due out at 10 a.m. EST. The hope is that both are upbeat enough to reassure investors that the U.S. economy isn't falling into a recession, yet show enough weakness to motivate central bankers to implement further rate cuts when they meet March 18.
The Conference Board's gauge of leading economic indicators is expected to show a slight dip last month. The report is designed to predict where the U.S. economy is headed in the next three to six months.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's February manufacturing index is expected to rebound from January's six-year low while still showing declining business activity.
Traders are already pricing in another interest rate cut -- perhaps by up to 50 basis points -- after minutes from the Fed's last policy-setting meeting indicated central bankers will remain vigilant. The Fed forecast slower growth and continued risks to the economy from housing and credit markets.
In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 50.88, or 0.41 percent, to 12,478.14.
Broader indexes also moved higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index added 5.13, or 0.38 percent, to 1,365.16, while the Nasdaq composite rose 19.40, or 0.83 percent, 2,346.50.
15/02/08
US FEDERAL RESERVE SIGNALS NEW INTEREST RATE CUT TO PROTECT AGAINST RECESSION
Tom Bawden, New York
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, pledged today to tackle the credit crunch that is threatening America’s growth by acting "as needed" to bolster its flagging economy.
In remarks that appeared to reinforce the case for a further interest rate cut, Mr Bernanke said that the central bank "will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks".
Mr Bernanke told a Senate Banking Committee hearing: "More-expensive and less-available credit seems likely to continue to be a source of restraint on economic growth.
"The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased."
The Fed controls the economy chiefly by determining the key "federal funds" interest rate.
Although he did not go into details, analysts interpreted Mr Bernanke's comments as a further indication that the Fed would cut interest rates again at its next meeting, on March 18.
The Fed imposed an emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points in the cost of borrowing to 3.5 per cent on January 22, then reduced the rate by a further half-point at its scheduled meeting eight days later.
Mr Bernanke added: "My baseline outlook involves a period of sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt."
"The softer labour market, together with factors including higher energy prices, lower equity prices, and declining home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending in the near term."
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 43.80 points to 12,508.40 as Mr Bernanke's comments emerged
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, pledged today to tackle the credit crunch that is threatening America’s growth by acting "as needed" to bolster its flagging economy.
In remarks that appeared to reinforce the case for a further interest rate cut, Mr Bernanke said that the central bank "will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks".
Mr Bernanke told a Senate Banking Committee hearing: "More-expensive and less-available credit seems likely to continue to be a source of restraint on economic growth.
"The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased."
The Fed controls the economy chiefly by determining the key "federal funds" interest rate.
Although he did not go into details, analysts interpreted Mr Bernanke's comments as a further indication that the Fed would cut interest rates again at its next meeting, on March 18.
The Fed imposed an emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points in the cost of borrowing to 3.5 per cent on January 22, then reduced the rate by a further half-point at its scheduled meeting eight days later.
Mr Bernanke added: "My baseline outlook involves a period of sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt."
"The softer labour market, together with factors including higher energy prices, lower equity prices, and declining home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending in the near term."
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 43.80 points to 12,508.40 as Mr Bernanke's comments emerged
11/02/08
COUNTRYWIDE DEBUTS SUBPRIME "WORKOUT" PLAN
By Riley McDermid & Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:00 p.m. EST Feb. 11, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Help could be on the way for some subprime-mortgage borrowers caught up in the twin sagas of the plummeting housing market and besieged Countrywide Financial Corp., after the nation's largest home-loan lender said Monday that it's broadening efforts to help prevent foreclosures.
The Calabasas, Calif.-based company CFC (6.65, +0.07, +1.1%) is teaming up with the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, the advocacy group also known as Acorn, to expand an existing $16 billion program to help subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure and work out more manageable rates on their mortgages.
The new plan will be open to borrowers whether they are current on their payments or not, and they need not have adjustable-rate mortgages to apply, the company said.
It will allow all Countrywide borrowers with subprime loans to seek "workout" options, not just those with ARMs whose rates are due to "reset" at higher levels.
Many borrowers have struggled to stay current on payments that have reset to vastly higher rates -- a function of the many "hybrid" loan products popularized earlier this decade as a way stimulate the lending environment.
"All homeowners with a Countrywide subprime loan will get some kind of relief," said Maude Hurd, national president of Acorn, during a conference call with reporters. In a news release, she called the agreement "historic," and said the practices set out in it would "fill gaps by providing assistance to borrowers who don't fit the financial situations covered in the previously announced initiatives, placing Countrywide and ACORN at the forefront of assisting more homeowners across the nation to stay in their homes."
"We hope that other servicers will follow suit," Hurd said during the teleconference.
Shares of Countrywide (CFC 6.65, +0.07, +1.1%) traded 1.5% higher Monday afternoon, changing hands at $6.68, up 10 cents.
Countrywide has struggled to come up with a publicity-friendly plan for dealing with the skyrocketing number of defaults on its books, even as federal regulators have scrambled to put together a plan to help avoid foreclosures.
The Bush administration debuted its own subprime plan in December, under which the government and banks like Countrywide, Citigroup Inc. (CIT 25.01, +0.51, +2.1%) , Washington Mutual Inc. (WM 16.80, -1.28, -7.1%) and Wells Fargo & Co.(WFC 29.54, +0.06, +0.2%) would work together to help keep borrowers in their homes.
Industry research firm RealtyTrac said Jan. 30 that foreclosure filings were up 75% in 2007, with some particularly hard-hit states seeing a 79% rise. The data showed that more than 2 million properties went into foreclosure in that 12-month period, with December seeing an 86% increase in foreclosure activity from the same month a year earlier.
At the end of last year, Countrywide said that nearly 7% percent of loans in its servicing portfolio were delinquent -- a jump of nearly two percentage points from the same period the year before. Of those, more than 1% faced immediate foreclosure, with that number expected to rise in the next few months.
Countrywide reported on Monday that it had completed more than 12,000 workout programs during December, which included 10,000 loan modifications for its customers. The company said it is currently working with more than 100,000 additional borrowers to find affordable workout solutions. About 3,200 employees are working with these customers, company representatives said on Monday's call.
Workout solutions can include modifications to a loan, which often involves lowering the rate for a period of time if a borrower is unable to make payments after the loan resets. They also include repayment plans, which can work for borrowers with temporary interruptions in their ability to pay.
Countrywide had been expected to announce Monday's agreement last month, but that plan was put on hold after news broke that the lender would be acquired by Bank of America Corp. (BAC 42.14, -0.02, 0.0%) in a $4.1 billion, all-stock deal.
How effective government and industry programs have been is debatable. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported last month that subprime ARM borrowers who already had a repayment plan or loan modification in place but were unable to avoid default anyway accounted for 40% of the subprime ARM foreclosures.
But Wade Rathke, chief organizer of Acorn, said Monday's announcement was significant. There are many firms that are still trailing in providing sufficient foreclosure relief efforts, he said, and Countrywide could lead by example on this front.
"As events have proven, this was a more serious situation than anyone anticipated," he said during the teleconference. "There are companies that really need to step up," Rathke said, adding that Countrywide's initiative could set the stage for "a more uniform level of progress across the field."
While Monday's announcement focused on struggling subprime borrowers, in coming months, Countrywide will also evaluate the best way to help another group of borrowers who may need it -- prime borrowers with pay-option loans, said Mary Jane Seebach, managing director of public affairs for Countrywide.
Countrywide customers seeking more information about workout programs or counseling can call the company's home retention division at 800-669-6650, or Acorn's housing call center at 866-67-ACORN.
Amy Hoak is a MarketWatch reporter based in Chicago
Last update: 4:00 p.m. EST Feb. 11, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Help could be on the way for some subprime-mortgage borrowers caught up in the twin sagas of the plummeting housing market and besieged Countrywide Financial Corp., after the nation's largest home-loan lender said Monday that it's broadening efforts to help prevent foreclosures.
The Calabasas, Calif.-based company CFC (6.65, +0.07, +1.1%) is teaming up with the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, the advocacy group also known as Acorn, to expand an existing $16 billion program to help subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure and work out more manageable rates on their mortgages.
The new plan will be open to borrowers whether they are current on their payments or not, and they need not have adjustable-rate mortgages to apply, the company said.
It will allow all Countrywide borrowers with subprime loans to seek "workout" options, not just those with ARMs whose rates are due to "reset" at higher levels.
Many borrowers have struggled to stay current on payments that have reset to vastly higher rates -- a function of the many "hybrid" loan products popularized earlier this decade as a way stimulate the lending environment.
"All homeowners with a Countrywide subprime loan will get some kind of relief," said Maude Hurd, national president of Acorn, during a conference call with reporters. In a news release, she called the agreement "historic," and said the practices set out in it would "fill gaps by providing assistance to borrowers who don't fit the financial situations covered in the previously announced initiatives, placing Countrywide and ACORN at the forefront of assisting more homeowners across the nation to stay in their homes."
"We hope that other servicers will follow suit," Hurd said during the teleconference.
Shares of Countrywide (CFC 6.65, +0.07, +1.1%) traded 1.5% higher Monday afternoon, changing hands at $6.68, up 10 cents.
Countrywide has struggled to come up with a publicity-friendly plan for dealing with the skyrocketing number of defaults on its books, even as federal regulators have scrambled to put together a plan to help avoid foreclosures.
The Bush administration debuted its own subprime plan in December, under which the government and banks like Countrywide, Citigroup Inc. (CIT 25.01, +0.51, +2.1%) , Washington Mutual Inc. (WM 16.80, -1.28, -7.1%) and Wells Fargo & Co.(WFC 29.54, +0.06, +0.2%) would work together to help keep borrowers in their homes.
Industry research firm RealtyTrac said Jan. 30 that foreclosure filings were up 75% in 2007, with some particularly hard-hit states seeing a 79% rise. The data showed that more than 2 million properties went into foreclosure in that 12-month period, with December seeing an 86% increase in foreclosure activity from the same month a year earlier.
At the end of last year, Countrywide said that nearly 7% percent of loans in its servicing portfolio were delinquent -- a jump of nearly two percentage points from the same period the year before. Of those, more than 1% faced immediate foreclosure, with that number expected to rise in the next few months.
Countrywide reported on Monday that it had completed more than 12,000 workout programs during December, which included 10,000 loan modifications for its customers. The company said it is currently working with more than 100,000 additional borrowers to find affordable workout solutions. About 3,200 employees are working with these customers, company representatives said on Monday's call.
Workout solutions can include modifications to a loan, which often involves lowering the rate for a period of time if a borrower is unable to make payments after the loan resets. They also include repayment plans, which can work for borrowers with temporary interruptions in their ability to pay.
Countrywide had been expected to announce Monday's agreement last month, but that plan was put on hold after news broke that the lender would be acquired by Bank of America Corp. (BAC 42.14, -0.02, 0.0%) in a $4.1 billion, all-stock deal.
How effective government and industry programs have been is debatable. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported last month that subprime ARM borrowers who already had a repayment plan or loan modification in place but were unable to avoid default anyway accounted for 40% of the subprime ARM foreclosures.
But Wade Rathke, chief organizer of Acorn, said Monday's announcement was significant. There are many firms that are still trailing in providing sufficient foreclosure relief efforts, he said, and Countrywide could lead by example on this front.
"As events have proven, this was a more serious situation than anyone anticipated," he said during the teleconference. "There are companies that really need to step up," Rathke said, adding that Countrywide's initiative could set the stage for "a more uniform level of progress across the field."
While Monday's announcement focused on struggling subprime borrowers, in coming months, Countrywide will also evaluate the best way to help another group of borrowers who may need it -- prime borrowers with pay-option loans, said Mary Jane Seebach, managing director of public affairs for Countrywide.
Countrywide customers seeking more information about workout programs or counseling can call the company's home retention division at 800-669-6650, or Acorn's housing call center at 866-67-ACORN.
Amy Hoak is a MarketWatch reporter based in Chicago
04/02/08
FED AUCTIONS TO CONTINUE
The Federal Reserve said Friday it will pump $60 billion in cash to commercial banks in two auctions to be held this month as part of its ongoing efforts to stem a persistent credit crunch that has stalled the nation's financial system.
The new auctions will be held Feb. 11 and Feb. 25 through the Fed's term auction facility, continuing a new auction process it announced in December to bolster bank reserves and raise confidence levels.
The central bank said it will keep holding such auctions "for as long as necessary to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets."
The announcement comes after the Fed slashed its key interest rate target by 125 basis points this month -- its largest monthly move in over two decades.
The new auctions will be held Feb. 11 and Feb. 25 through the Fed's term auction facility, continuing a new auction process it announced in December to bolster bank reserves and raise confidence levels.
The central bank said it will keep holding such auctions "for as long as necessary to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets."
The announcement comes after the Fed slashed its key interest rate target by 125 basis points this month -- its largest monthly move in over two decades.
JANGAN PANDANG ENTENG MICROCAP DAN PENNYSTOCK
Para investor dan manajer investasi di pelbagai pasar modal di dunia, tak terkecuali di pasar modal Indonesia cenderung memfokuskan perhatian dan mengalokasikan dana investasinya pada saham dari perusahaan besar. Itulah sebabnya, saham-saham berkapitalisasi pasar besar selalu menjadi incaran. Jarang, bahkan hampir tidak pernah investor atau manajer investasi yang mencoba mengadu untung pada saham-saham kecil dan rendah harganya. Tetapi, tidak demikian halnya dengan Paul D. Sonkion.
Sonkin memang belum setenar Warren Buffett, Mario Gobelli, Glenn Greenberg, Robert H. Heilbrunn, Seth Klarman, Michael Price, Walter dan Edwin Schloss. Tetapi bila anda ingin mencari orang yang sukses berinvestasi karena memfokuskan perhatiannya pada saham-saham kecil dan harganya rendah, Sonkin-lah orangnya.
Menurut Sonkin, peluang terbesar untuk meraih gain dan menaikkan harga saham hanya terjadi apabila investor memfokuskan dana investasinya pada saham-saham kecil dan harganya murah. Menurut observasinya, saham-saham kecil (microcap) dan murah harganya (pennystock) - di bursa New York yang disebut microcap ialah saham dengan kapitalissi pasar di bawah US$100 juta-, dan yang rendah harganya (penny stock) berharga kurang dari US $5- bukan karena kinerja perusahaan dan prospek usahanya jelek, tetapi karena saham-saham itu tidak digubris dan tidak direkomendasikan oleh para analis. Saham-saham tersebut berpotensi mendatangkan gain yang tak keci.
Mafia Columbia
Tetapi siapakah Paul D. Sonkin itu? Sonkin dikenal sebagai salah satu dari ‘mafia Colombia’. Mengapa? Karena dia menyelesaikan studinya di sekolah bisnis Columbia. Di sekolah tersebut dia kemudian memberi kuliah tentang analisis saham dan investasi nilai.
Sebelum masuk sekolah bisnis Columbia, dia bekerja di Securities and Exchange Commision (SEC) dan Goldman Sachs. Usai kuliah, Sonkin bergabung dengan Royce & Associates, sebuah perusahaan manajemen keuangan yang secara khusus bergerak dalam bidang sekuritas nilai kecil dan microcap sebagai analis dan manager portofolio. Dari Royce dia pindah ke First Manhattan Company, perusahaan nilai lain yang berkonsentrasi pada saham-saham perusahaan yang lebih besar. Sejak November 1999 dia menjadi kepala bidang investasi pada Hummingbird Value Fund, sebuah perkongsian terbatas di mana dia dapat kembali pada dunia kecil dan microcap yang dia cintai.
Fakta yang tak terbantahkan bahwasanya buku karya bersama Benjamin Graham dan David Dodd berjudul Security Analysis yang terbit tahun 1934 menjadi semacam “kitab suci” bagi para investor nilai. Hingga saat ini buku tersebut sudah terbit sebanyak lima edisi. Tapi Sonkin dan banyak penggemar investasi nilai lebih tertarik pada edisi ketiga yang terbit tahun 1954. Menurut dia edisi tersebut paling bagus karena diperkaya dengan pengalaman Graham sendiri akan masa depresi ekonomi tahun 1929. Sonkin juga mengapresiasi surat-surat yang ditulis Graham kepada para investor di perusahaan mitra antara Graham – Newman.
Sesungguhnya, teori investasi nilai itu menarik dan dapat diaplikasikan. Tetapi, banyak investor nilai kewalahan untuk menerapkannya karena harus berhadapan dengan banyak investor yang cerdas dan memiliki banyak informasi. Bertolak dari fakta demikian, Sonkin memfokuskan perhatiannya pada ‘permainan’ (baca: transaksi saham) yang pesertanya sedikit. Pasalnya, semakin sedikit pemain semakin mudah membaca strategi lawan main.
Menurut observasi Sonkin, transaksi yang pesertanya sedikit hanya terjadi atas saham-saham dari perusahaan yang kecil dan tidak dipedulikan oleh para analis. Nah, supaya bisa memetik gain atas transaksi saham yang kecil demikian, Sonkin berupaya melakukan analisis nilai perusahaan secara mandiri. Dalam hal ini dia menggunakan metode analisis nilai sebagaimana diwariskan Graham. Lebih dari itu, dia pun berupaya menggali nilai pada neraca perusahaan. Menurut dia, neraca menyediakan data mengenai posisi asset, kas dan jumlah uang yang dapat ditagih. Data tersebut amat menentukan nilai perusahaan.
Melalui cara pendekatan demikian, Sonkin dapat menentukan secara akurat saham perusahaan kecil mana saja yang layak diinvestasi sehingga dapat menekan risiko rugi dan mendatangkan gain bagi portofolio investasinya.
Kombinasi
Sonkin menyadari bahwa sejumlah investor nilai menghendaki portofolio yang terpusat; menaruh semua telur pada satu keranjang (Bisnis, 23/2). Sementara, investor lainnya menginginkan portofolio yang terdiversifikasi; menaruh telur pada banyak keranjang.
Dia beranggapan bahwa perbedaan pendapat tentang strategi membentuk portofolio melahirkan teori investasi yang menekankan pembedaan antara risiko sistematis dan non-sistematis. Risiko non-sistematis adalah risiko yang (yang berubah-ubah) yang inheren dalam kepemilikan saham tunggal. Risiko dapat dikurangi atau bahkan dieliminasi dengan melakukan diversifikasi. Risiko sistematis adalah risiko yang tidak dapat diversifikasi.
Menurut teori, karena tidak ada pembayaran untuk tanggungan sebuah risiko yang dapat dieliminasi, adalah lebih baik untuk diversifikasi. Itu biasanya berarti memiliki saham dalam 20 atau lebih perusahaan di banyak bursa. Sejumlah investor nilai lainnya berpendapat bahwa investor dapat mengurangi risiko bila memiliki cukup informasi dan basis analisis dari para analis yang baik.
Sonkin bukan salah seorang yang begitu fanatik dengan sekolah investor nilai. Sebab, ternyata dia dengan cukup bernafsu menganut paham diversifikasi. Portofolio yang dia jalankan terbagi atas dua bagian besar.
Pertama, dia membentuk portofolio setelah menyeleksi saham secara tradisonal sebagaimana ditunjuk oleh Graham. Dalam hal ini dia membuat daftar saham-saham perusahaan kecil tetapi memiliki nilai tinggi. Jika saham-saham tersebut diabaikan oleh analis dan pemain di bursa saham, maka dia mengalokasikan dana investasi ke saham-saham tersebut.
Kedua, dia menempatkan dananya pada saham-saham yang berada pada harga terendah, namun memiliki kondisi fundamental yang baik. Seperti memiliki kas di bank, aset-aset nyata, atau pendapatan yang sudah dinormalisasi.
Pada bagian lain, Sonkin membentuk portofolio berpedomankan pada jenis situasi arbitrase. Dia mengartikan arbitrase dalam pengertian luas, tetapi satu hal yang menjadi kunci ialah bahwa suatu peristiwa akan berpengaruh pada harga suatu saham. Menurut dia, pengumuman tentang take-over, likuidasi, spin-off, restrukturisasi perusahaan merupakan peluang emas untuk menerapkan prinsip high return on investment and low level of risk.
Sonkin berkeyakinan bahwa pembentukan portolio investasi melalui dua proses dan dua maksud yang berbeda merupakan suatu kombinasi yang tepat agar terhindar dari keputusan investasi yang salah.
Nah, investor di bursa saham yang memiliki dana investasi terbatas, dapat mencontohi strategi berinvestasi yang diperkenalkan Sonkin ini yakni memusatkan perhatian pada saham-saham kecil (microcap) dan murah (pennystock), serta diabaikan para analis. Sebab, saham-saham yang demikian berpotensi memberikan gain pula. Selamat mencoba!
Sonkin memang belum setenar Warren Buffett, Mario Gobelli, Glenn Greenberg, Robert H. Heilbrunn, Seth Klarman, Michael Price, Walter dan Edwin Schloss. Tetapi bila anda ingin mencari orang yang sukses berinvestasi karena memfokuskan perhatiannya pada saham-saham kecil dan harganya rendah, Sonkin-lah orangnya.
Menurut Sonkin, peluang terbesar untuk meraih gain dan menaikkan harga saham hanya terjadi apabila investor memfokuskan dana investasinya pada saham-saham kecil dan harganya murah. Menurut observasinya, saham-saham kecil (microcap) dan murah harganya (pennystock) - di bursa New York yang disebut microcap ialah saham dengan kapitalissi pasar di bawah US$100 juta-, dan yang rendah harganya (penny stock) berharga kurang dari US $5- bukan karena kinerja perusahaan dan prospek usahanya jelek, tetapi karena saham-saham itu tidak digubris dan tidak direkomendasikan oleh para analis. Saham-saham tersebut berpotensi mendatangkan gain yang tak keci.
Mafia Columbia
Tetapi siapakah Paul D. Sonkin itu? Sonkin dikenal sebagai salah satu dari ‘mafia Colombia’. Mengapa? Karena dia menyelesaikan studinya di sekolah bisnis Columbia. Di sekolah tersebut dia kemudian memberi kuliah tentang analisis saham dan investasi nilai.
Sebelum masuk sekolah bisnis Columbia, dia bekerja di Securities and Exchange Commision (SEC) dan Goldman Sachs. Usai kuliah, Sonkin bergabung dengan Royce & Associates, sebuah perusahaan manajemen keuangan yang secara khusus bergerak dalam bidang sekuritas nilai kecil dan microcap sebagai analis dan manager portofolio. Dari Royce dia pindah ke First Manhattan Company, perusahaan nilai lain yang berkonsentrasi pada saham-saham perusahaan yang lebih besar. Sejak November 1999 dia menjadi kepala bidang investasi pada Hummingbird Value Fund, sebuah perkongsian terbatas di mana dia dapat kembali pada dunia kecil dan microcap yang dia cintai.
Fakta yang tak terbantahkan bahwasanya buku karya bersama Benjamin Graham dan David Dodd berjudul Security Analysis yang terbit tahun 1934 menjadi semacam “kitab suci” bagi para investor nilai. Hingga saat ini buku tersebut sudah terbit sebanyak lima edisi. Tapi Sonkin dan banyak penggemar investasi nilai lebih tertarik pada edisi ketiga yang terbit tahun 1954. Menurut dia edisi tersebut paling bagus karena diperkaya dengan pengalaman Graham sendiri akan masa depresi ekonomi tahun 1929. Sonkin juga mengapresiasi surat-surat yang ditulis Graham kepada para investor di perusahaan mitra antara Graham – Newman.
Sesungguhnya, teori investasi nilai itu menarik dan dapat diaplikasikan. Tetapi, banyak investor nilai kewalahan untuk menerapkannya karena harus berhadapan dengan banyak investor yang cerdas dan memiliki banyak informasi. Bertolak dari fakta demikian, Sonkin memfokuskan perhatiannya pada ‘permainan’ (baca: transaksi saham) yang pesertanya sedikit. Pasalnya, semakin sedikit pemain semakin mudah membaca strategi lawan main.
Menurut observasi Sonkin, transaksi yang pesertanya sedikit hanya terjadi atas saham-saham dari perusahaan yang kecil dan tidak dipedulikan oleh para analis. Nah, supaya bisa memetik gain atas transaksi saham yang kecil demikian, Sonkin berupaya melakukan analisis nilai perusahaan secara mandiri. Dalam hal ini dia menggunakan metode analisis nilai sebagaimana diwariskan Graham. Lebih dari itu, dia pun berupaya menggali nilai pada neraca perusahaan. Menurut dia, neraca menyediakan data mengenai posisi asset, kas dan jumlah uang yang dapat ditagih. Data tersebut amat menentukan nilai perusahaan.
Melalui cara pendekatan demikian, Sonkin dapat menentukan secara akurat saham perusahaan kecil mana saja yang layak diinvestasi sehingga dapat menekan risiko rugi dan mendatangkan gain bagi portofolio investasinya.
Kombinasi
Sonkin menyadari bahwa sejumlah investor nilai menghendaki portofolio yang terpusat; menaruh semua telur pada satu keranjang (Bisnis, 23/2). Sementara, investor lainnya menginginkan portofolio yang terdiversifikasi; menaruh telur pada banyak keranjang.
Dia beranggapan bahwa perbedaan pendapat tentang strategi membentuk portofolio melahirkan teori investasi yang menekankan pembedaan antara risiko sistematis dan non-sistematis. Risiko non-sistematis adalah risiko yang (yang berubah-ubah) yang inheren dalam kepemilikan saham tunggal. Risiko dapat dikurangi atau bahkan dieliminasi dengan melakukan diversifikasi. Risiko sistematis adalah risiko yang tidak dapat diversifikasi.
Menurut teori, karena tidak ada pembayaran untuk tanggungan sebuah risiko yang dapat dieliminasi, adalah lebih baik untuk diversifikasi. Itu biasanya berarti memiliki saham dalam 20 atau lebih perusahaan di banyak bursa. Sejumlah investor nilai lainnya berpendapat bahwa investor dapat mengurangi risiko bila memiliki cukup informasi dan basis analisis dari para analis yang baik.
Sonkin bukan salah seorang yang begitu fanatik dengan sekolah investor nilai. Sebab, ternyata dia dengan cukup bernafsu menganut paham diversifikasi. Portofolio yang dia jalankan terbagi atas dua bagian besar.
Pertama, dia membentuk portofolio setelah menyeleksi saham secara tradisonal sebagaimana ditunjuk oleh Graham. Dalam hal ini dia membuat daftar saham-saham perusahaan kecil tetapi memiliki nilai tinggi. Jika saham-saham tersebut diabaikan oleh analis dan pemain di bursa saham, maka dia mengalokasikan dana investasi ke saham-saham tersebut.
Kedua, dia menempatkan dananya pada saham-saham yang berada pada harga terendah, namun memiliki kondisi fundamental yang baik. Seperti memiliki kas di bank, aset-aset nyata, atau pendapatan yang sudah dinormalisasi.
Pada bagian lain, Sonkin membentuk portofolio berpedomankan pada jenis situasi arbitrase. Dia mengartikan arbitrase dalam pengertian luas, tetapi satu hal yang menjadi kunci ialah bahwa suatu peristiwa akan berpengaruh pada harga suatu saham. Menurut dia, pengumuman tentang take-over, likuidasi, spin-off, restrukturisasi perusahaan merupakan peluang emas untuk menerapkan prinsip high return on investment and low level of risk.
Sonkin berkeyakinan bahwa pembentukan portolio investasi melalui dua proses dan dua maksud yang berbeda merupakan suatu kombinasi yang tepat agar terhindar dari keputusan investasi yang salah.
Nah, investor di bursa saham yang memiliki dana investasi terbatas, dapat mencontohi strategi berinvestasi yang diperkenalkan Sonkin ini yakni memusatkan perhatian pada saham-saham kecil (microcap) dan murah (pennystock), serta diabaikan para analis. Sebab, saham-saham yang demikian berpotensi memberikan gain pula. Selamat mencoba!
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